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Buildout patterns & signals

Commonalities across the site’s sourced data, and the directional predictions they support. Two lanes: Observed (primary-sourced facts) and Derived (arithmetic on those facts). Every derived figure shows its formula, the exact source numbers, and a defensibility tier — grounded (a ratio of two sourced figures) or directional (a trend to read as “at the recent observed pace”). Nothing is estimated to fill a gap.

Observed — the ERCOT large-load funnel

438.0 GWRequested (queue)
9.0 GWApproved to energize
3.9 GWObserved operating peak

ERCOT large-load interconnection queue, snapshot 2026-03-31. Source: ERCOT LLI.

Derived — what the funnel implies

2.1%
grounded
Approval rate — share of the requested queue cleared to energize
approved_to_energize ÷ requested = 9,042 ÷ 438,000 MW. The queue is a demand signal, not a delivery schedule.
Inputs: ERCOT LLI
43%
grounded
Realization rate — approved capacity that is actually drawing power
observed_peak ÷ approved_to_energize = 3,883 ÷ 9,042 MW.
Inputs: ERCOT LLI
0.89%
grounded
Realized-to-queue — real operating load vs the headline queue
observed_peak ÷ requested = 3,883 ÷ 438,000 MW. Under 1% of the headline queue is metered load today.
Inputs: ERCOT LLI
4.8×
grounded
“Paper gigawatts” multiple — requested queue vs the whole metered grid
requested_queue ÷ metered_system_peak = 438,000 ÷ 91,075 MW. The requested queue exceeds ERCOT's entire current peak by this multiple — full realization would require the grid to grow several-fold.
Inputs: ERCOT LLI · EIA-930
-3,967 MW
directional
Firm-capacity headroom before any new large load lands
firm_dispatchable − metered_peak = 87,108 − 91,075 MW. A thin cushion on the dispatchable fleet alone; intermittent nameplate is excluded. Point-in-time, not a forecast.
Inputs: EIA-860M · EIA-930
flat vs surging
directional
Approvals have stalled while requests surged
approved_to_energize sits at 9,042 MW at the latest snapshot with a value, while requested has climbed toward 438,000 MW — each incremental GW requested converts to a smaller share of real approval. Extrapolating headline queue growth to future load is unreliable.
Inputs: ERCOT LLI

Operators by attributed capacity

Sum of per-facility disclosed/attributed power (gross MW, falling back to IT MW) by operator. Disclosure-biased: only 587 of 27,404 tracked facilities state any power figure, and rows mix operational, announced, and third-party-estimated capacity — read as a coverage-weighted ranking, not an operational-MW census.

OperatorFacilitiesAttributed capacity
Crusoe312.5 GW
Amazon1110.5 GW
Softbank/Open AI (unconfirmed)19.2 GW
TransGas Development, LLC24.8 GW
Homer City Redevelopment (with Kiewit as contractor/partner)14.5 GW
Google234.4 GW
Aligned Data Centers33.8 GW
Meta173.6 GW
Balico LLC13.5 GW
Vermaland LLC13.0 GW
Stak13.0 GW
IREN22.8 GW
Microsoft142.5 GW
VALCO HANOVER COUNTY12.4 GW
PowerHouse Data Centers22.2 GW
Tract22.1 GW
Poolside/CoreWeave12.0 GW
Granite Renewables12.0 GW
Eneus Energy12.0 GW
xAI21.9 GW

Counties by tracked capacity

Where disclosed capacity concentrates — a directional “next-hotspot” read, same disclosure caveat as above.

CountyAttributed capacity
Laramie, WY, United States10.2 GW
Pike, OH, United States9.2 GW
Box Elder, UT, United States9.0 GW
Lea County, NM, United States7.0 GW
Pecos, TX, United States7.0 GW
Mingo, WV, United States4.8 GW
Indiana, PA, United States4.5 GW
Beaver, PA, United States4.2 GW
Hanover, VA, United States4.2 GW
Will, IL, United States4.0 GW
Pittsylvania, VA, United States3.8 GW
Maricopa, AZ, United States3.8 GW
Lackawanna, PA, United States3.6 GW
North Slope, AK, United States3.1 GW
Lake, IN, United States3.1 GW
These are analytical readings, not investment advice or a delivery forecast. ERCOT is the deepest-covered region today; the same funnel math generalizes to PJM/MISO/CAISO and other ISOs as their queues are ingested (each with its own source). Derived figures update every build as the underlying sourced data refreshes.