GRID WATCH

interconnection queues · live demand · capacity · data center buildout — sourced, never estimated
ERCOT
ERCOT large-load queue
438.0 GW
+94% vs. 2025
Queue vs. operating fleet
2.5×
requested vs. actually built — most never will be
Approved to energize
9,042 MW
ERCOT, cumulative
Observed operational peak
3,883 MW
large loads actually drawing power
Next Batch Zero deadline
today
2026-07-10 — Form X / Form W / most ILLE attestations due
ERCOT demand, live
64.1 GW
hourly via EIA-930, as of 2026-07-10T07Z
Energy delivered
56,287 GWh
ERCOT, last 35 days
Operating fleet
174.9 GW
1 region · top fuel Natural Gas 38%
Flagship compute
1,742.0 PF
El Capitan, 29.6 MW (TOP500)
Compute efficiency
58.9 GF/W
134× since 2008
Queue in flagship units
14,807×
ERCOT queue ÷ one El Capitan
Cooling — best fleet PUE
1.09
Google (global fleet-wide) · industry avg 1.54
Build cost
$11–11.3/W
data center construction, per watt
Regions live
1 / 7
major US ISOs on the EIA feed; more as verified
Datasets catalogued
2
every entry adversarially verified

Grid pulse hourly demand + daily peaks, EIA-930, all tracked regions

Interconnection queues latest verified totals by region · ERCOT history

RegionTotal queueAs of
ERCOT438.0 GW2026-03-31

Generation capacity actual in-service fleet, EIA-860/860M

RegionMWAs of
ERCOT174.9 GW2026-04
ERCOT fuelMWShare
Natural Gas67.2 GW38%
Wind40.0 GW23%
Solar31.6 GW18%
Battery Storage15.9 GW9%
Coal13.4 GW8%
Nuclear5,139 MW3%
Oil/Diesel798 MW0%
Hydro549 MW0%
Other/Biomass374 MW0%

Industry benchmarks every figure independently verified against its primary source

Cooling — PUE lower is better; 1.0 = perfect

EntityPUEAs ofSource
Google (global fleet-wide)1.092025Google (datacenters.google)
AWS (global fleet-wide)1.142025Amazon.com Inc. (Amazon Sustainability)
US national average (all data center types)1.402023Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory — 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report (LBNL-2001637)
Global industry average (Uptime Institute Global Data Center Survey 2025, n=681)1.542025Uptime Institute (Uptime Intelligence)

CapEx per watt

Entity$/WAs ofSource
1x1 combined-cycle gas turbine plant (generation side, not the data center building)$0.92/W2023GridLab / Energy Futures Group / Halcyon, citing EIA (Sargent & Lundy cost study)
Traditional prime markets, full build (shell + M&E + cooling + fit-out)$11.00/W2025-2026CBRE Investment Management, citing Turner & Townsend Data Center Cost Index
Global average (shell-and-core construction)$11.30/W2026 (forecast)JLL

Data centers as % of grid demand

EntityShareAs ofSource
Not yet sourced.
ERCOT deep dive

Upcoming Batch Zero deadlines

  • 2026-07-10 — Form X / Form W / most ILLE attestations due
  • 2026-07-24 — Batch Zero Load Information Form due to ERCOT

Watch feed

2026-07-24 batch zero deadline

Batch Zero Load Information Form due to ERCOT

Interconnecting TSPs must submit the Batch Zero LIF workbook, Dynamic Stability Study Form, and Section 9.2.1.2/9.2.1.4 attestations to BatchZero@ercot.com source

2026-07-10 batch zero deadline

Form X / Form W / most ILLE attestations due

ILLEs must submit Form X (WLPUN designation), Form W (PCLR commitment), and Section 9.2.1.1 attestations to their interconnecting DSP/TSP source

2026-06-18 regulatory

PUCT approves Batch Zero rules

PUCT approved rules for ERCOT to review an initial batch of large-load interconnection requests (75+ MW), including a $50,000/MW fee structure source

2026-03-31 queue update

Large-load queue reaches 438 GW

ERCOT tracking 438 GW of large-load requests; ~90% from data centers; 198 GW applied in Q1 2026 alone source

2026-03-13 queue update

137 new LLI submissions totaling ~140 GW by 2036

ERCOT reported receiving 137 new LLI submissions totaling approximately 140,000 MW of new large load by 2036, still being processed source

2025-11-30 queue update

Queue nearly quadruples year-over-year

226 GW of large-load interconnection requests, up from 63 GW twelve months earlier; 73% from data centers source

Snapshot table

MonthTotal queueApprovedObserved peakSource
2026-03-31438.0 GW9,042 MW3,883 MWUtility Dive / PUCT; ERCOT Mar 2026 TAC report
2025-11-30226.0 GWERCOT public data via davefriedman.substack.com
2025-03-319,042 MW3,883 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Mar 2026 (TAC)
2024-11-3063.0 GWERCOT public data via davefriedman.substack.com
2024-01-3139.3 GW4,479 MW2,587 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024
2023-12-3139.2 GW4,479 MW2,432 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024
2023-10-3139.3 GW3,926 MW2,379 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024
2023-09-3039.6 GW3,926 MW2,379 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024
2023-08-3142.5 GW3,744 MW2,347 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024
2023-07-313,084 MW2,336 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024
2023-05-3141.8 GW2,620 MW2,072 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024
2023-04-3039.6 GW2,570 MW2,013 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024
2023-03-3139.4 GW2,570 MWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024
2022-04-3017.4 GWERCOT LLI Status Update Jan 2024

Compute per megawatt worldwide, TOP500 flagship systems

Flagship TOP500 efficiency improved 134× from 2008 to 2024 — a doubling every ~2.3 years. The ERCOT large-load queue nearly doubled in the last twelve months alone. Efficiency isn't going to save the grid: today's 438.0 GW queue equals ~14,807 copies of El Capitan, the most powerful computer on the TOP500.

ListSystemCountryHPL RmaxPowerGflops/W
2024-11El CapitanUnited States1,742.0 PF29.6 MW58.89
2024-06AuroraUnited States1,012.0 PF38.7 MW26.15
2022-06FrontierUnited States1,102.0 PF21.1 MW52.23
2020-11FugakuJapan442.0 PF29.9 MW14.78
2019-06SummitUnited States148.6 PF10.1 MW14.72
2016-06Sunway TaihuLightChina93.0 PF15.4 MW6.05
2013-06Tianhe-2China33.9 PF17.8 MW1.90
2012-11TitanUnited States17.6 PF8.2 MW2.14
2011-11K computerJapan10.5 PF12.7 MW0.83
2009-11JaguarUnited States1.8 PF7.0 MW0.25
2008-06RoadrunnerUnited States1.0 PF2.3 MW0.44

Dataset library

EIA Form 860 — Annual Electric Generator Inventory

Generator-level inventory (nameplate capacity, fuel type, owner/utility, in-service and planned/actual retirement dates, prime mover, technology, environmental equipment) for all US electric generating plants with combined nameplate capacity >=1 MW. Annual ZIP archive with multiple workbook tabs (utility, plant, generator, wind, solar, storage, multi-fuel, environmental). Texas/ERCOT plants are a filterable state subset, not a separate file. Free, no login required.

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy · Individual generator/unit level, aggregated to plant and utility; nationwide (Texas filterable). Current-format archive spans 2001-2025. · Annual, one release cycle per year. 2025 early-release data published 2026-06-09; final 2025 data due September 2026.

cataloguing source

NREL ARPA-E PERFORM Load, Wind, and Solar Generation Profiles (ERCOT/NYISO/MISO/SPP)

Time-coincident load, wind, and solar generation profiles. ERCOT actuals cover 2017-2018 with forecasts for 2018; NYISO/MISO/SPP actuals cover 2018-2019 with forecasts for 2019. Includes deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for existing sites and for projected capacity-growth scenarios derived from ~2021-era interconnection queue proposals.

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), via OpenEI, ARPA-E PERFORM program (contact: Brian Sergi) · 5-minute resolution timeseries · Static historical archive, not continuously updated (published 2022-08-18; last revised 2022-10-06). 2017-2019 data — historical, not current.

cataloguing source

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Pro database

Project-level LLI tracking, county permits, CSV/API export, docket alerts.

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